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Anyone who has been around the block in financial markets learns that the obvious trade is seldom the most rewarding. An important caveat, of course, is that contrarian thinking does not produce automatic wins; it simply produces nonstop bragging when it works at all. By the way, some form of Darwinism should have eliminated the contrarian gene from our midst by now. So saying that the obvious trend of expecting short-term interest rates to rise is a compelling one.